Race and Politics: the Overused Divide
Race. Overused. Misunderstood even by individuals within those specific ethnic groups. In this post, I aim to squash the perception that race plays an overwhelming factor in how these two groups vote and establish the precedent that Asians and Hispanics have supported Black candidates in the past, and therefore, would in the present and future. In fact, ideology and incumbency seem to play much larger role in voting behavior than race. (Surprise, surprise.)
Hispanics do support Black candidates
Let’s begin the discussion with the man for which the effect is named – Tom Bradley. In California, there are two very concentrated populations of Hispanic and Asian Democratic voters to analyze. One is LA where the Hispanic community represents 47% of the LA county. The other is comprised of the 9 counties that represent the Bay Area, where Asian Americans make up 19% of the region. I’m going to concentrate on the mayoral elections in those two areas mainly because I can’t find any data on any Congressional elections after sifting through days of Google results. If anyone can point me to a source, please ping.
Tom Bradley was the first African American LA mayor and the second black mayor in the US. As a political newbie, running a very grassroots campaign, he narrowly lost his first bid to incumbent Yorty in 1969. Four years later with more constituents aware of him, Bradley won the election with the help of the Black and Jewish communities and a “bare majority” of the Hispanic vote. (Source: Halley, Acock & Greene) What’s more fascinating is the Hispanic vote broke down along class lines – as the more well-to-do Hispanic voters seemed “less amenable to the coalition-of-minorities” argument.
I know some of my friends will scratch their heads and wonder how their own anecdotal evidence fits into the equation. They will point to cautionary tales of distant Hispanic/Asian relatives who threaten to disown their sons and daughters for bringing home a black significant other. And yes, I realize that my one data point doesn’t negate the fact that certain individuals within a group may be racist.
“There are large demographic differences between Likely voters and Other Adults.” [Exact quote from Public Policy Institute of California.]
There is a separation between the Democratic Primary Hispanic electorate and the Hispanic people as a whole. Primary voters, termed “likely voters,” represent a specific subset of the larger Hispanic population in California. In fact, Likely voters tend to be “older, more educated, and more affluent.” And then I want to point out that using anecdotal data is a lame as me saying “I know a Black person who once stole a car radio…” because it relies on the the basic notion that that one incident represents a much smaller and not necessarily representative sample of the group that you are drawing a comparison with.
To be crystal clear, Hispanic electorate is not the same as the Hispanic ethnic group. If you use anecdotal evidence, you portray patterns in the larger group and not necessarily the specific group that is voting. It’s a matter of data analysis.
Anyways, Tom Bradley went on to win 4 more mayoral elections and then ran to be California’s governor in 1982, which he lost. He led comfortably in the polls but lost each time in a nail biter. The effect was then defined as the behavior of white voters to support candidates while being polled but to vote another way in the booth.
So yes, Hispanic voters are willing to support Black candidates like Bradley that fit their ideological values in contrast to white candidates like Yorty (a conservative Democrat) . The idea that Hillary won the Hispanic vote 2 to 1 because a majority of Hispanic Democratic voters are prejudiced against black candidates seems silly.
Asians do support Black candidates
Well, let’s name off a couple of Black Bay Area politicians that have garnered the support of the Asian electorate over white candidates and sometimes even Asian ones: Willie Brown, Elihu Harris. Back in 60’s, Brown ran for his first office to the California State Assembly. He won the seat with a slight minority of the Asian American vote. Then during his 1999 SF mayoral election, he won with a 20 point margin over fellow Democrat Tom Ammiano with Chinese American voters casting ballots 2 to 1 in favor of Brown. (I’m not trying to be vague with election data. Information is incomplete and hard to find. If anyone has more data, please pass along.)
So, are we done with this nonsense yet? Are we going to stop making irrational statements in light of contrary evidence? People vote for people. Race may be a confounding factor, but is not nearly the 80% factor that it has been made to be in the California primaries. I do want to point out though that race does play a big part if the candidate belongs to your own ethnic group – the Black vote swung 2 to 1 in favor of Obama even in Hillary’s home state of NY. In LA’s mayoral race, the Latino vote was 3 to 1 in favor of Villaraigosa in early polling.
Moving beyond race
As I was sifting through election data, I found this fascinating poll prior to the LA mayoral election, which pitted Villaraigosa, the first Hispanic mayor in LA in over a century against Hahn. In his bid for the position, he trounced the incumbent mayor Hahn with a coalition of Hispanics, Blacks and Whites in every corner of the city. Only Asians remained loyal to Hanh. Here’s a poll, which helps explain why:
Wow. Experience vs. unity. It sounds like a familiar debate, no? Somewhat reminiscent of Obama vs. Hillary? It seems Asians care a lot more about experience than any other group – 13 points more than their white counterparts and 8 points more than their fellow Black voters. And on whether their leader can bring the community together, only 8% of Asian pollers indicated that was an important factor vs. ~20% in other groups.
Is this really a surprise to anyone? I mean a thousand years of Confucian ethnics, which hammer in the idea that age and experience trumps the young and unity. Unity? Consensus? Which Asian governments are emblems of these values? The totalitarian one in China? This is conjecture on my part, but I’m going to make the argument that Asians do indeed value experience more and the concept of unity as a leader is quite foreign and at times at odds with the way they grew up. Asian parents bark orders and their Asian kids respect it. Let’s sit around and talk about our feelings and how we can all get along…hhhmm…doesn’t happen.
Okay, I’m done. Done and done. No more race wars. On to more constructive matters…
Right. It must be a matter of “data analysis.” This is reminiscent of my days as an investment banker, where it was my personal duty to “analyze the data” until my employer came out on top in every possible league table.
Data analysis: remove any “outliers,” narrow the sample size, re-define terms, footnote the crap out of it all.
On February 21, Wendy N. posted, and I quote:
”
“Obama is losing the Latino vote because the Latino and Black community have “racial tensions.”
Code for: The Hispanic community is racist and has issues voting for a Black man.
Obama is losing the Asian American vote because Asians are afraid of “change” and don’t like black candidates.
Code for: The Asian community is racist. ”
”
So, on February 21, which corresponds to the date when I initially got started on this argument, Wendy N. was talking about “The Hispanic Community” and “The Latino Community.” But now we are suddenly talking about the “Hispanic Electorate.” Right, it’s “data analysis.” Silly me.
And let’s see, in the history of the US, which let’s say started around 1776, there have been how many black leaders? And how many have been supported by the Latino and Asian communities? Well, there is Tom Bradley. But not just him, we ALSO have Willie Brown AND Elihu Harris. Wow, this must mean Asians and Latinos are not racist after all. This is not anecdotal data; this is statistical analysis. Being part of the Latino Community, and having strong ties to it is “anecdotal” however?
It is silly you. I obviously was writing in the context of the Hispanic electorate. Why would the Hispanic community be relevant in the discussion of why Obama lost the Hispanic vote as the Hispanic vote implies Hispanic electorate, no? And frankly, you would have a hard time convincing me that Hispanic/Asian people are more racist than white people. But that’s another debate and doesn’t pertain to the results of the California primaries.
And yes, I have used actual data to illustrate that the Asian and Hispanic electorates in California have supported Black candidates in the past. So yes, that does make your argument that the Asian and Hispanic electorates are too racist to vote for a Black man a little silly.
So yes, silly on both accounts. Show me data, Vinny. Not sarcastic comments that hide your inability to make a case.
I don’t think it was obvious, or meant as obvious. If we are talking about inability to make a case, then it becoming obvious was in your aid to make a case. And honestly, I think you might be surprised, white people at least have the guilt of not being seen as racist, but hispanics definitely do not. At least not when among other hispanics.
The point was that selecting two/three results where some random black or asian person was elected for office represents the way people would vote is misleading. Especially since there is no historical context. You are just looking at the result. I don’t see how such a small sample is less anecdotal than my opinions, which are at least based on pretty deep knowledge of my culture. I have not tried to say things about Asian culture because I don’t know. You however make it sound like you are more of an authority on my culture based on some random data points that prove nothing. I showed previously proving the disparity and prevalent racism in Latin America, to which you never responded even. The last thing I will do is hide behind sarcastic comments; I was simply replying in the tone that you have set when dealing with anyone that disagrees with you.
Dude, don’t become a lawyer.
Your argument: “As far as I am concerned, there is NO argument that Latinos are very racist and they are NOT going to vote for a black man. No question.”
My point: The Hispanic electorate has supported black candidates in the past.
My argument disproves your argument that [Latinos] “are NOT going to vote for a black man” because I present data that shows that a majority of the Hispanic electorate has voted for a black candidate.
And I didn’t respond to your Latin America data b/c again, it is ridiculous to compare the California Hispanic electorate to the Latin American population as they are two very separate peoples. And my examples are not “anecdotal.”
Definition of anecdote: a short account of a particular incident or event of an interesting or amusing nature, often biographical.
My evidence is just that – evidence. Actual historical examples of the majority of the CA Hispanic electorate voting for a black candidate – something you said would not and has never happened.
Imagine if the world was run exclusively on hard statistical data. The role of emotion, culture, and even human irrationality tend to be highly understated, despite being crucial to everyday life. Case in point: trust. What good are all the models, data, computers and systems of the world if people don’t trust them? You can never run an economy in which people have no trust. The most sophisticated programs would collapse, yet no one thinks of trust as one of the most important pillars in the world.
Likewise, there are many things that are never spoken about in the open, that cannot be measured; but that does not mean that they do not exist. It also does not mean that they are not important. Racial predisposition is undoubtedly one of them. And it is not just white people that are pre-disposed to these things, it is everyone. We all are. Being politically correct does not solve anything, else the US would be on the other side, god knows how politically correct we are here!
Vinny, next I’ll be hearing from you that man was created in God’s likeness and dinosaurs bones were fabricated by MIT lab geeks. Instead of trying to dispute the validity of data, let me make the argument that you are attempting to make using data.
You believe that a certain portion of the Hispanic population is racist. My evidence does not dispute that or even attempt to dispute that. We are now arguing over magnitude.
My arguments rests upon the assertion that the majority of the Hispanic electorate is not racist enough to not vote for a Black man, and therefore, the outcome of the Democratic Primary was not decided because of racism. Racism could have been a contributing factor – even a 20% factor – but not an 80% factor.
So, even using my data, 30% of the Hispanic electorate could be totally racist – 1 in 3 of all Hispanic people you meet – enough to fuel all the anecdotal incidents you want. BUT and this is the whole point, at least 55% of the Hispanic electorate is willing to vote for a Black man because they have voted for a black man in the past. In fact, it’s probably closer to 65-75% as you would want to account for the 10-20% who were willing to vote for a black candidate, but just liked the other guy more.
Therefore, you can still call a significant portion of your people racist, and I can still say that at least 65-75% of the Hispanic electorate is not prejudiced enough to cross a candidate’s name off the list simply because he is black. They haven’t done so in the past, so why do we think they would now?
Not believing in data and evidence without a tangible reason is never the answer.
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